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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270228
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N TO 11N ALONG 94W MOVING W AT 10- 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM NE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 07N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N TO 14N ALONG 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS TO 110W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 08.5N102W AND IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. WINDS NEAR THE BROAD LOW ARE MAINLY FRESH OR LESS HOWEVER AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH 10N110W BY 24 HOURS THEN WILL DECREASE IN SPEED SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 12N112W BY 48 HOURS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N118W AND IS MOVING W AROUND 5-10 KT. A TROUGH IS ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW EXTENDING FROM 13N118W TO THE LOW TO 07N119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 122W...AND ALSO FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH WINDS ALONG WITH AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W BY LATE WED NIGHT AS IT REACHES 09N123W...THEN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W AND 129W AS IT REACHES 09N125W BY THU EVENING. NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12.5N131W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE E QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY FRESH WINDS WHILE AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL REACH NEAR 11N134W BY 24 HOURS...THEN TO NEAR 10.5N136W BY 48 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ ARE CURRENTLY NOT NOTED.


...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1020 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 29N127W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N111W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N133W TO 23N140W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS N OF 20N W OF 110W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD REACHING 27N132W BY 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN JUST ENOUGH BY WED NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF EPISODE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SEAS WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD TO 8 FT BY SUNRISE THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT DURING EACH EVENT.

$$ LEWITSKY

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