Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310921 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE... CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OF A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 12N122W ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE REACHING TO 18N. A CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER HAS BEEN EVIDENT ALTHOUGH FAIRLY BROAD AND ILL DEFINED SO FAR...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA FROM 06 UTC INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE LOW CENTER SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION. ANOTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IS THE PERSISTENT LOCATION OF THE LOW PRES ON THE SE SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 122W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS INCREASING IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES AS IT MOVES WNW AT 15 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MEDIUM.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 102W/104W FROM 09N TO 18N. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N122W 1011 MB TO 11N133W TO BEYOND 11N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW NEAR 12N122W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HERNAN IS A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 25N126W. NO CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS LOW FOR MORE THAN THE PAST 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WEST OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS INTO STABLE AIR. ASCAT AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE WINDS AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS NEAR THE DISSIPATING LOW CENTER.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ALREADY EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS PLUME COMBINED WITH NE TO E WINDS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TOGETHER CONVERGED WITH SW FLOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLLISION OF THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. ANOTHER PULSE OF GAP WINDS IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED.

$$

CHRISTENSEN

Home