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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010904
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 UTC Sat Oct 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 08N97W to
11N103W. It resumes at 13N116W to 09N125W to 09N131W to 07N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to
08N east of 83W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 86W and 88W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted within 60 nm
north and 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 94W and 98W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient over the forecast waters is supporting
mainly light to gentle winds across much of the area. Winds over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec are pulsing to near gale force. A surface
trough extends from 23N115W to low pressure near 17N113W to
14N113W where recent scatterometer pass indicates winds in the
gentle to locally moderate range. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range
outside the Gulf of California, 2 ft or less over the Gulf of
California, and 8-10 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The surface
trough and low will continue to shift westward away from the
forecast waters this weekend while weakening. High pressure will
build across the northern waters this weekend. This will tighten
the pressure gradient and freshen winds north of 28N by early next
week. Northerly swell will propagate into the far northern waters
off the coast of Baja California Norte building seas to 8 ft by
early next week. Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
over the next couple of nights.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected north of the monsoon
trough, while gentle to locally moderate south to southwesterly
winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through the
upcoming weekend. Combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, primarily in long-
period southwesterly swell is expected across the offshore waters
through the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure will build over the northern waters this weekend which
will tighten the pressure gradient over the western waters between
the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough. This will
freshen winds north of the monsoon trough this weekend. The long
fetch of these fresh trades will help build seas to the 7-9 ft
range early next week.

$$
AL

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