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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 25 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed FROM 05N to 13N near 77W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N E of 81W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 08N91W to 12N121W to 10N124W. The ITCZ extends from 10N126W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm N of the monsoon trough E of 86W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 7.5N to 11.5N between 108W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough between 118W and 122W.


...DISCUSSION...

High pressure centered well N of the area near extends a ridge over northern waters N of 14N W of 113W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across Baja California is producing moderate to fresh northwest winds just W of the Baja Peninsula. The ridge is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds N of the convergence zone and S of 22N W of 120W. Several weak transient low pressure areas are currently present along the monsoon trough, and are forecast to remain embedded in the trough without intensifying through Sat. Trade winds N of these lows may occasionally increase to 20-25 kt during flare ups in convection. Seas across this trade wind zone will remain in the 5-6 ft range through the weekend. E of 100W, the pressure gradient is much weaker supporting mainly light to gentle winds. SW swell from the southern hemisphere will build seas over the area to 6-7 ft Fri and Sat.

Weak low pressure in the far northern Gulf of California will induce moderate to fresh SW winds N of 29N this afternoon through tonight, with seas building 4-5 ft.

$$ Mundell

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