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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302148
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 30 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS..

A tropical wave is analyzed along the Pacific coast of Colombia
and has been moving w at near 20 kt through the Central
Caribbean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed to the n of 02.5N and e of 83W to the coast of
Colombia.

A 1010 mb low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
09N103W. Although only gentle to moderate winds are observed
near the low, upper level conditions continue to support
scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 180 nm of
the low. This low is forecast to move wnw to near 11N103W on Fri
and near 13N106W on Sat with favorable conditions for
strengthening during that time. The marine forecast is for
strong to near gale force winds to develop within 120 nm n and
within 90 nm s semicircles of the low near 14N109W on Sun, and
near 12N113W on Mon, then expanding outward to 240 nm of a low
near 15N119W on Tue.

A 1010 mb low low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
13N115W. Only gentle to moderate winds are observed near the low.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within
210 nm of the low. The environment is not very favorable for
rapid development with the low is forecast to reach near 13N117W
on Fri, and near 14N119W on Sat.

A 1011 mb low low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
12N132W. Moderate southerly flow is observed within 270 nm over
the se semicircle, while moderate to fresh northerly winds are
forecast within 240 nm over the nw semicircle. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is currently observed within
30 nm of the low. This low is expected reach near 13N136W on Fri
and near 13n138W on Sat with the tightest gradient continuing nw
of the center.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 12N100W to the low pres
at 09N103W to 14N112W to the low pres at 13N115W to the low pres
at 12N132W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed within 240 nm either side of a line from
05N77W to 13N99W to 07N110W, except as previously described near
the tropical wave and the surface lows.

...DISCUSSION...

N of 15N e of 120W:

A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the
Baja California Peninsula and northern Gulf of California this
week supporting gentle southerly flow across the Gulf waters,
except occasionally increasing to a moderate southerly breeze
across the northern gulf waters.

A ridge extends se from 23N120W to 16N101W. Moderate nw flow is
observed n of 25N with combined seas of 5-8 ft. A weak trough
will pass e across the waters n of 29.5N on Sat, with the winds
and seas diminishing and subsiding. Gentle anticyclonic winds
surround a ridge across the waters s of 25N, but are expected to
increase to moderate to fresh across the waters from 15-17N
between 112-120W on Fri and Sat as a surface low passes westward
across the waters just s of 15N. Winds and seas are expected to
increase to fresh across the waters from 15-17N between 104-110W
on Sat night in association with another surface low that will
move wnw across 15N near 115W on Mon, with strong to near gale
force winds shifting w across the waters from 15-18N between 108-
120W on Sun through Tue.

S of 15N e of 120W:

See Tropical Lows section.

Fresh northeasterly winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo
tonight and again on Fri night. Guidance is suggesting a swath of
strong e winds will develop near 11N89W on Sat.

W of 120W:

See Tropical Lows section.

A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters to the n of 15N w of
120W. A swath of ne 7-9 ft seas primarily due to ne swell is
observed nw of a line from 32N120W to 20N140W. A reinforcing
surge of large n swell will reach along 32N between 118-132W
late tonight, with 8-11 ft seas forecast across the waters n of
25N between 119-135W on Sat.

$$
Nelson

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