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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041000
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS NEAR 11N121W WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION INTERMITTENTLY FLARING MAINLY OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE IN A GENERAL W-NW MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.


...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 09-17N ALONG 104W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N100W TO 12N108W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ DEVELOPS NEAR 07N87W AND CONTINUES WNW TO THE LOW PRES AT 12N121W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 08N140W.

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE TROPICAL LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE E SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N91W TO 12N100W...ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 05-16N BETWEEN 105-120W...ALONG THE W SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N128W TO 09N140W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 04.5N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER WITHIN 30 NM OF PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AT 15N96W AND FROM 23-26N.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 28N129W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 16N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT NORTHWESTERLY 15-20 KT FLOW TO THE N OF 28N WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM OF BAJA THROUGH LATE WED WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 7- 9 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-SW AND MIXING WITH THE LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. SIMILAR NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.

$$ NELSON

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