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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280324
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOLLAND AMERICA CRUISE SHIP STATENDAM CALL SIGN PHSG MAKING TRANSIT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS REPORTED MAX WINDS OF 64 KT AT BRIDGE LEVEL THIS EVENING. BASED ON THESE DATA CURRENT MAX SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50-60 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS FRI AFTERNOON...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS SAT AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS EVENT WILL BE RATHER LONG DURATION... EXPECT SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL TO REACH NEAR 113W FROM 01N-14N BETWEEN 94W-113W BY SAT MORNING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 08N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N95W TO 10N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 117W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE INTO THE THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 11-12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

GULF OF FONSECA...LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KT WINDS. EXPECT SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING 30N140W FRI. THE NEW FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY IN THE NW PORTION AS WELL SAT FROM 30N132W TO 24N139W. NW SWELL TO 10-11 FT WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS NW WATERS AND SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT.

1023 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS W OF THE ITCZ AND AN AREA OF COMBINED SEAS FROM RESIDUAL NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES TO 8-9 FT FROM 09N TO 17N W OF 126W. THIS AREA OF COMBINED SEAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT.

$$ MUNDELL

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