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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250930
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 04N94W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 10N107W...THEN RESUMES FROM 07N126W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 06N E OF 78W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 91W-94W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 129W.


...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES MID-UPPER LEVELS N OF 15N W OF 110W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR LOS ANGELES W-SW TO AROUND 27N142W. A CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT IS NOT EVIDENT NEAR THE SURFACE. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION W OF 129W ALONG THE ITCZ.

A NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N141W EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 17N W OF 115W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN 10N-20N W OF 120W. WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE SUPPORTING 8-11 FT COMBINED SEAS IN WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ.

SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY...AND PRODUCE FRESH SWELL THAT WILL SWEEP S OF 30N W OF 124W TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH SEA HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 10-11 FT SUN NIGHT.

EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT 20-25 KT W-SW WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT FROM DIURNAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SONORAN DESERT THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF.

$$ MUNDELL

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