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AXPZ20 KNHC 282120
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A recent scatterometer pass provided observations of 30 to 40 kt N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to near 14N. Seas are 9 to 13 ft within these winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist tonight and Fri morning, with seas building to 10 to 14 ft by tonight. Swell generated by this gap wind event will spread southwestward, creating 8 to 11 ft seas as far west as 100W and as far south as 09N on Fri morning. Both winds and seas should begin to diminish late Fri afternoon.

Marine interests in the Tehuantepec area, especially local fishermen need to take necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more detail.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure over northern Colombia to 07N100W to the Equator at 120W. The ITCZ is south of the Equator and runs westward from 01S110W to 03S125W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 90W and 120W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 06N W of 130W.


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, read the Special Features section for more details.

A ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft based on altimeter data. For the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate NW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present across central and southern parts of the Gulf, while light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft exist at the northern Gulf. Other than the Gale Warning area in the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the southern Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, gale conditions and rough to very rough seas will persist in the Tehuantepec region through Fri morning. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters of Baja California and northern Gulf of California on Sat, bringing with it increasing winds and large NW swell. This swell event could generate very rough seas at the outer offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sun morning.


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Abundant moisture in a southerly wind flow is triggering isolated to scattered showers in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, mainly light to gentle SE to S winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia and Ecuador.

For the forecast, starting early on Fri, increasing gap winds and rising seas will occur in the Papagayo area, and Gulf of Panama as high pressure builds north of the area. Also on Fri, swell generated by gap winds at the Tehuantepec region will cause rough seas across the far southwestern offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere, convergent southwesterly winds along with abundant moisture will continue to support sporadic showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Galapagos Islands and in the Costa Rica and West Panama offshore waters through at least Fri. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.


...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters while a weakening cold front extends from 30N126W to 27N140W. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. Moderate northerly winds follow the front with seas of 5 to 7 ft. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures near the equatorial trough/ITCZ maintains moderate to fresh trades from 06N to 18N W of 130W, and from 06N to 14N between 120W and 130W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft within these winds based on altimeter data.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will linger across the waters west of Baja California as the weakening front moves southeastward across waters north of 20N while dissipating. Residual NW swell will still big enough to keep 7 to 9 ft seas in this area until tonight. A strong cold front will enter the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte on Fri, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and a new swell event. Very rough seas are forecast to propagate across the waters N of 20N and W to 115W during the upcoming weekend.

$$ GR

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