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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161542
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL TROPICAL STORM CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 99.4W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC
SEP 16 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35
KT GUSTS 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM SW AND 90 NM NW QUADRANTS...AND SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER.
POLO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY...REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 2-3 DAYS.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO AS POLO MOVES
CLOSE TO AND PARALLEL TO THE COAST. SEE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ODILE LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 113.2W 994 MB AT 1500
UTC SEP 16 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO HUG THE EAST
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. ODILE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND OVER
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SWELLS FROM ODILE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF NW MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N86W TO 11N95W...
THEN RESUMES FROM 13N103W TO 14N111W TO 10N126W TO LOW PRES NEAR
12N138W 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 10N BETWEEN
89W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 124W
AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO
16N119W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W AND CENTRAL WATERS. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NW WATERS FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...DRAGGING THE WEAKENING FRONT EASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND PUSHING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SOUTHWARD.
8-10 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED NW OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THU.

LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA...RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT OR MORE ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF POLO
THROUGH THU AS THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DAMPENS.

$$
MUNDELL

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