000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080952
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 8 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0910 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N96W to 10N107W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N112W to 05N130W to beyond 06N140W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N
between 121W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N
to 14N E of 103W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge
southeastward over the offshore waters of Baja California and to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between
the high pressure and lower pressure associated with a
dissipating cold front entering Baja California Norte is
supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the Baja
offshores this morning. Seas across this area are in the range
of 6 to 7 ft in NW swell, except 8 to 9 ft N of Punta Eugenia.
Inside the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to locally
moderate from the SW N of 28N and from the NW S of 28N. Seas
along the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft, highest at the entrance of the
Gulf. Elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters,
winds are gentle to moderate from the W-NW and seas remain 5 to
6 ft in SW swell.
For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the local area will
shift NE throughout the week. This will lead to the continuation
of moderate NW winds across the Baja Peninsula waters through
today, with small areas of locally fresh winds developing near
the coasts each afternoon and evening, becoming gentle to
moderate winds Thu through Fri. Fresh NW winds will persist
across the Baja Norte waters NW of Guadalupe Island through
today. NW swell will continue to move into the Baja offshore
waters through the week, with seas in excess of 8 ft persisting
across the waters north through west of Punta Eugenia through Thu
evening. Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are
expected elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters
through Sun night.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail across
the offshore waters between the Colombian coast and Costa Rica.
This active weather is likely producing frequent, strong gusty
winds, and moderate to rough seas. Over the remainder Central
America offshore waters N of 09N, winds remain light and
variable and seas moderate to 5 ft in S swell. Between the coast
of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are mainly moderate
from the S to SW with 5 to 6 ft seas in S swell, except for
moderate SE winds W of 87W.
For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are
expected S of 06N through Thu, which will feed into scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms currently E of 103W. This
active weather will shift slowly westward through Thu. Light to
gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere along with moderate
seas in S swell. Otherwise, new southerly swell will maintain
seas of 6 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands today through Sun
night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
1032 mb high pressure is centered well offshore of northern
California and extends a ridge south and southeastward across
the subtropical waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands.
Gentle to moderate N-NE winds are noted N of 20N between 115W
and 125W, then become NE to E-NE to the west of 130W. Seas
across this area N of 20N are 6-9 ft in NW swell. S of 20N,
between the ridge and the ITCZ and W of 122W, moderate to locally
fresh NE-E winds and 6-8 ft seas in NE swell prevail. South of
the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to E winds are noted with 6 to 8
ft seas in mixed SE and SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle
variable winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western
part of the tropical waters will gradually diminish to moderate
speeds through Sun, as high pressure N of the area drifts
northeastward. Seas of 6 to 7 ft are expected across the area of
trade winds through Sun. NW swell across the Baja California
Norte waters will build through mid week to produce seas of 8 ft
and greater, mainly N of 25W and E of 130W today through Thu
night. The seas there will subside below 8 ft late Thu night, and
to 6 ft or less on Sat.
$$
Ramos
