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AXPZ20 KNHC 301456
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 330 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING W AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 98W-102W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING AT 01/0000 UTC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI AND HELP TO INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FRI EVENING. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 12-15 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BY EARLY SAT. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N83W 8N88W TO 10N97W THEN RESUMES W OF T.D. TWENTY-ONE-E NEAR 11N104W ALONG 13N117W 12N129W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 90W-92W AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 119W-130W.


...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS THROUGH 32N134W TO 28N140W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY REACHING FROM 32N127W TO 26N134W DISSIPATING TO 24N140W BY FRI MORNING AND FROM 30N118W TO 25N125W BY SAT MORNING. EARLY FRI MORNING FRESH WINDS AND NW SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT AND TO 10 FT BY 1200 UTC. BY SAT 8 TO 11 FT SEAS WILL SWEEP FROM W TO E ACROSS THE N WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS CENTERED SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 28N131W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SW WATERS GENERALLY FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 115W. AS THE FRONT MOVES SW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INCREASING TRADE WINDS TO STRONG BY EARLY SAT MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING AHEAD...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECASTED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$ PAW

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