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AXPZ20 KNHC 232048
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE SEP 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N101W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 103W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED STRONG WINDS S AND NE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION. AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NE SHEAR ALOFT. THESE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE BASIN N OF 10N ALONG 86W/87W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W ALONG 11N89W 15N97W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 14N101W THEN ALONG 8N107W TO 8N115W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N124W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 92W-96W AND FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 104W-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 80W-88W.


...DISCUSSION...

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS THROUGH 32N129W TO 25N140W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE SWELLS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED. SE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT TO 120W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER NW MEXICO COVERING THE AREA N OF 8N E OF 127W AND CAUSING NE SHEAR ALOFT OVER THE 1008 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.

THE REMNANT LOW OF POLO IS A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH A 1010 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 21N116W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N133W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO 30N122W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

$$ PAW

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