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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250241
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
225 UTC Tue Apr 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough axis extends from near 07N84W to 06N91W to 04N100W, where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ axis forms and extends westward to 04N110W to 06N119W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough axis between 91W and 95W, and from 07N to 10N between 113W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the axis between 128W and 131W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high centered at 32N178W extends a ridge southeastward to near 18N115W. Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds are observed south of 30N west of the Baja Peninsula to near 125W, with 8 to 10 ft seas in long period NW swell. Near gale to gale force northwest winds are occurring north of the discussion area off the coast of Southern California. Strong northwest winds and associated seas will soon spread to the south of 30N tonight, and reach near 25N by Tuesday night, then diminish on Wednesday. Combined seas will build to around 12 ft with these strong winds on Tuesday, and continue through Wednesday.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The pressure gradient over southeastern Mexico continues to weaken. This will allow for winds across the Gulf to diminish further through early on Tuesday. Present northeast swell producing combined seas to 8 ft between 95W and 98W will continue to decay through tonight. These seas will subside to less than 8 ft early on Tuesday.

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong southwest winds over a portion of the northern Gulf as a result of a tight gradient between the typical thermal trough across the Gulf and strong ridging to its west. As the gradient slacken some through Tuesday afternoon, these winds will then diminish to fresh category by then. Mostly gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected elsewhere over the Gulf through Wednesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A gentle onshore breeze is expected during the day time hours, then become offshore along the coast at night. Combined seas of 4 to 6 ft mainly in southwest to west swell will continue through Wednesday, except for large swell in the 6 to 8 ft range expected to prevail offshore the Galapagos Islands through Wednesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A northwest to southeast ridge axis will remain the main feature through Wednesday. The gradient south of the ridge will support mainly fresh northeast winds over over much of this area. Expect 7 to 8 ft northwest swell to gradually subside from the northwest through Wednesday over the northeast part of the area outside 250 nm of the Baja California Peninsula coast.

$$ Aguirre

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