000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230929
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Apr 23 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from northwest Colombia to 07N79W to 08N86W to
07N96W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N112W to 04N123W to
03N133W and to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
136W-139W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the
ITCZ between 101W-105W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure is present west of Baja California, with a ridge
axis that extends southeastward to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough
that is over the Gulf of California is allowing for generally
gentle to locally moderate winds west of Baja California as seen
in an overnight ASCAT pass. The pressure gradient between high
pressure along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental
Mountains of Mexico and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh
to strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The 0314 UTC ASCAT
satellite data pass nicely captured these winds. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7 to 10 ft range in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, 4 to 6 ft over the remainder of the open
waters off Mexico, and 3 to 4 ft over the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish this afternoon. Seas generated by
these winds will subside this afternoon as well. Gentle to
moderate winds winds and moderate seas will persist west of the
Baja California peninsula through late Wed. Winds will then
freshen Thu through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
moderate seas will continue during the period.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR
Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft due to mostly
southerly long-period south to southwest swell are over most of
these waters, except off Ecuador, where seas are peaking to about
7 ft.
For the forecast, moderate to occasionally northeast to east
winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo region through the
rest of the week. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will
continue through the rest of the week. Seas will peak to 7 ft
off Ecuador today.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure is analyzed over the waters north of about 17N.
The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds from 07N to 16N between 118W and 129W and from
05N to 17N between 129W and 140W as noted in overnight ASCAT
satellite data passes over those sections of the area. Seas with
these winds are in the 6 to 8 ft range due to a mix of long-
period northwest swell and shorter period trade wind generated
waves. Latest altimeter data satellite passes detect seas of 8
ft along and near 140W from 06N to 12N.
Weak low pressure of 1018 mb is located north of the area near
32N131W, with a trough extending to 30N130W, and continuing
southwestward to 28N132W and to 26N138W. No significant weather
is noted with this system. Moderate to fresh north to northeast
winds are north of the trough along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.
Elsewhere, mostly gentle trade winds are over the discussion
waters. Aside from the seas in the tradewind zone mentioned
above, seas are in the 4-6 ft range.
For the forecast, the trade winds will expand some in coverage
during the remainder of the week as stronger high pressure builds
across the region. Seas with these winds are expected to build
a peak of about 9 or 10 ft. The above described weak low
pressure is expected to move east-southeastward and enter the
far north-central portion of the discussion waters on Wed.
Moderate to fresh north winds will follow the low. These winds
are forecast to reach westward to near 131W. Little change in
seas is expected with these winds.
$$
Aguirre
