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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241502
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1502 UTC Wed May 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 13N95W to 08N114W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 08N114W to 09N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 12N to 14N between 92W and 95W, within 180 nm either side of the axis between 100W and 115W, and from 07N to 09N between 126W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08N between 116W and 120W, and also from 06N to 09N between 133W and 137W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area supporting moderate NW winds prevailing across the Baja peninsula waters, and light NW to W winds from Las Tres Marias to Acapulco. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in mixed NW and SW swell across the open waters. The pressure gradient will tighten somewhat N of 20N later today through Friday as the ridge builds modestly into the region, with winds and seas increasing slightly.

In the Gulf of California, mainly light to gentle variable winds are expected through Thursday except in the northern Gulf, with seas of 2 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance. Low pressure will deepen just N of the area over SW Arizona tonight through the end of the week. A trough will extend from the low across the northern Gulf to Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop SE of the trough tonight, and then again on Thursday night as winds become enhanced through the gaps in the higher terrain of Baja. Seas will build significantly, reaching 5 to 8 ft each night during the nocturnal wind max.

S of 16N including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, broad and ill-defined low pressure has persisted across the offshore waters SW of Tehuantepec the past few days, and has gradually drifted to the W of 100W. Gentle to moderate SE winds occurring between Tehuantepec and offshore of Acapulco will gradually weaken and veer SW to W through Friday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail between the Papagayo region and Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Expect these conditions to continue through this evening before gentle to moderate SW to W monsoonal winds spread N of 09N and into the coastal waters through Friday. Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh levels near the Gulf of Papagayo by Saturday night, and again on Sunday night. Moderate SW winds are expected S of 09N through Thursday night, with seas subsiding in SW swell today before a new pulse of SW swell arrives Thursday through late Friday. Otherwise, little change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge extends from 30N136W SE to near 17N113W. The ridge will drift SE today as a trough moves SE across the waters N of 30N accompanied by long period NW swell. This will build seas to 6 to 8 ft from 29N to 32N between 124W and 135W. Elsewhere N of the convergence zone, the weak ridge will maintain moderate trade winds S of 18N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft expected. Little change is anticipated through Sunday, increasing to fresh across the W central waters Sunday night into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens.

$$ LEWITSKY

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