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995
AXPZ20 KNHC 281001
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to near-gale force gap winds are occurring at the Gulf of Tehunatepec. These winds will increase further to between gale and strong-gale force after sunrise this morning. Seas under these winds will build to 10 to 13 ft by noon today, and peak at 13 to 15 ft tonight. Swell generated by this gap wind event will spread southwestward, creating 8 to 11 ft seas as far west as 100W and as far south as 09N on Fri morning. Both winds and seas should begin to diminish late Fri afternoon.

Marine interests in the Tehuantepec area, especially local fishermen need to take necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more detail.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends west-southwestward from central Panama across 08N78W and 05N105W to 02N127W. An ITCZ runs westward from 02S109W to 03S130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough from 03N to 06N between 81W and 93W, and from 02N to 07N between 100W and 130W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near the ITCZ from 06S to 02S between 117W and 124W.


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

A broad surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore waters of Baja California, Revillagigedo Islands and Jalisco State with gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the Gulf of California, fresh with locally strong NW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present across central and southern gulf, while light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft exist at the northern gulf. Other than the Gale Warning area in the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the southern Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, gap winds at the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach gale to strong-gale force after sunrise this morning, and then persist through Fri morning. In response, very rough to high seas are expected in the Tehuantepec region through early Fri afternoon. The pressure gradient between a surface ridge across the eastern Pacific, and lower pressure over Mexico will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas at the central Gulf of California until late this morning. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters of Baja California and northern Gulf of California on Sat, bringing with it increasing winds and large NW swell. This swell could generate high seas at the outer offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sun morning.


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moist, convergent SW to W winds are triggering widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms south of the Galapagos Islands, and off central Costa Rica. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the region. Otherwise, gentle with locally moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail across the offshore waters of Ecuador, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are found offshore of Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua.

For the forecast, convergent southwesterly winds along with abundant moisture will continue to support sporadic showers and thunderstorms near the Galapagos Islands and in the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters through at least Fri. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the entire region through Thu night. Starting Fri, increasing gap winds and rising seas will occur in the Papagayo area, and Gulf of Panama as high pressure builds north of the area. Also on Fri, swell generated by gap winds at the Tehuantepec region will cause rough seas across the far southwestern offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador.


...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters while a weakening cold front is about to cross 30N135W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures near the equatorial trough/ITCZ maintains moderate to fresh trades along with 7 to 9 ft seas from 07N to 20N west of 125W, confirmed by the most recent scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow along with 5 to 7 ft seas are evident across most of the waters north of 20N and W of 120W. Gentle with locally moderate NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist north of the equatorial trough between 100W and 120W. Mostly gentle ENE to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Pacific waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will linger across the waters west of Baja California as the weakening front moves southeastward across waters north of 20N. This will allow trade winds from 07N to 20N west of 125W to diminish. Residual NW swell will still big enough to keep 7 to 9 ft seas in this area until this evening. A strong cold front will enter the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte on Fri, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and large seas.

$$

Chan

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