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AXPZ20 KNHC 271518
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dora centered near 19.3N 110.2W at 1500 UTC, moving west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is within 60 nm of the eastern semicircle, with scattered moderate convection noted within 30 nm of the west semicircle. Satellite imagery shows Dora is starting to weaken as it moves into a hostile environment of cooler ocean temperatures. It is expected to rapidly weaken as it tracks west-northwest through Wednesday, becoming a remnant low by Wednesday night. Large swell generated by Dora is expected to reach the southern coast of Baja California by tonight. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N86W to 07N95W to 11N105W to 09N115W to 10N127W. The ITCZ continues from 10N127W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is located from 05N to 11N between 80W and 111W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Except within 150 nm of Dora...gentle to moderate winds prevail in the waters west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds are off the coast of SW Mexico and across the Gulf of California. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Little change is expected during the next several days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected to continue across most of the region, except for southerly winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Long period SW swell is propagating across the equator, and will build seas up to 10 ft late today.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Light to gentle winds prevail from 10N to 20N between 120W and 130W, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are generally 4-7 ft. Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory criteria through the remainder of the week.

$$ Mundell

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