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AXPZ20 KNHC 062108
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N90W TO 08N109W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N109W TO 08N124W TO 06N132W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 135W.


...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N WITH SEAS JUST BELOW 8 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY SAT. LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. VEERING WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP SHUT OFF THE GAP WIND EVENT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL REACH THE 20-25 KT RANGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N134W AND EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 19N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS HAS HELPED FOR INCREASED CONVERGENCE INTO THE ITCZ WHICH IS HELPING FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE ITCZ SECTION. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES.

$$ AL

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