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AXPZ20 KNHC 031549
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 08N93W TO 07N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM 07N110W TO 06N127W TO 05N135W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 07N81W TO 04N86W TO 07N103W TO 14N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N111W TO 08N129W TO 04N140W.


...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N AND W OF 120W...A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED AT 33N131W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 30N133W TO BEYOND 25N140W. THE SURFACE LOW IS A GALE CENTER. THE LATEST ALTIMETRY CARRIED SEAS BETWEEN 11 AND 13 FEET JUST W OF THE LOW BETWEEN 32N AND 36N. ASCAT IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. A 2324Z RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT N WINDS AS FAR SOUTHWARD AS 28N. HAVE ACCORDINGLY CARRIED WINDS AT THESE SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE INITIAL FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THE LOW EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WILL MAINTAIN WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT N OF 28N TO THE NW OF THE FRONT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WED NIGHT AND THU. 20 TO 25 KT S TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF THE TROUGH AND N OF 30N AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON ACLIMATOLOGICAL GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTH WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY THU EVENING. WINDS AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE...30-35 KT...ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EXPECT SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 11-12 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT.

$$ MCELROY

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