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AXPZ20 KNHC 030851
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU SEP 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR 17.5N 115.3W AT 0900 UTC MOVING N OR 350 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0520 UTC SHOWED 35 KT WINDS NNW OF THE CENTER AND WAS USED TO DEFINE THE AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION UP TO 210 NM NE OF THE CENTER. KEVIN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE LATE FRI WITH DIMINISHING SST AND DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N91W TO 11N101W TO 10N106W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 11N121W TO 08N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 121W AND 126W.


...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER W OF THE FORECAST AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT CURRENTLY FROM 12N TO 28N W OF 136W. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 25N115W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF JIMENA AND KEVIN. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 02N131W TO 05N126W TO 05N105W TO 03.4S101W. BY FRI SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL BE FOUND S OF A LINE FROM 05N135W TO 06N100W TO 03.4S91W.

$$ MUNDELL

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