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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241547
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM NE AND E QUADRANTS WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 125W- 133W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 330 NM N QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT REACHES NEAR 14N133W MON MORNING. ON MON...THE LOW WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAKEN THE LOW AS IT CONTINUES N-NW TO NEAR 17N136W BY TUE MORNING.

A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED AT 06N139W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS 0708 UTC SHOWED WINDS WELL LESS THAN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE SYSTEM. SEAS TO 8 FT SHOULD STILL BE LINGERING NEAR THE LOW IN MIXED E AND SW SWELL. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DECREASING. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON A N-NW TRACK AND COULD CROSS 140W LATER TODAY.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 97W FROM 02N-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE FROM 06N-13N. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOUND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-10N E OF 87W. A BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 09N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 300 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF THIS LOW.


...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N136W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 30N130W TO THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TUE MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE...PRIMARILY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS LIE SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXCEPT OVER NW WATERS. A RAPIDSCAT PASS FROM 0856 UTC CAPTURED FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS N OF 23N W OF 137W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT W OF THE AREA FROM 32N144W TO 30N143W TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N148W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FORECAST WATERS N OF 24N EARLY MON MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL MON MORNING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FROM 32N138W TO 30N137W TO 24N140W TUE MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH.

4-6 FT SEAS IN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 16-18 SECOND PERIOD HAS REACHED THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST AND ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT. A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REACH THE COAST WITH 3-4 FT SEAS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OR COLOMBIA AND PANAMA SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL WITH 5-6 FT SEAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TUE MORNING.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM ANALYZED NEAR 09N116W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N118W. EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SYSTEM BY LATE MON AS THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS N. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND TROUGHING TO THE SW ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE HAS GENERATED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A FRESH BREEZE OR LESS AND BELOW 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH TUE MORNING.

$$ SCHAUER

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