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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220308
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM GUATEMALA TO 06N91W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N118W TO 11N118W MOVING W 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 11N TO 17N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS 16N139W TO 08N139W...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 08N TO 13N.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 07N90W. ITCZ FROM 07N90W TO 11N105W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 10N116W TO 11N125W TO 11N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 83W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 180-240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 135W.


...DISCUSSION... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 32N126W TO 24N135W TO 25N140W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N132W THROUGH 27N125W 30N124W TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 70- 80 KT. THE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 30N131W TO 25N137W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

AN EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DOMINATES THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 120W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A COL NEAR 17N124W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N105W WAS MOVING W AT 15 KT S OF THE RIDGE.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL FROM 10N-15N W OF 132W WILL BRIEFLY SHRINK TO AN AREA W OF 135W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN EXPAND EASTWARD TO 125W AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA BECOMES MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED.

A WEAKER PULSE OF MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ENTER INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 12 HOURS...THEN WEAKEN LATER TUE BEFORE A STRONGER PULSE OF 20-30 KT TUE NIGHT/WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY WED.

$$ COBB

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