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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 8 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N94W AND LOWER PRES SE OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0320 UTC SHOWED 30-45 KT WINDS EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 13.5N96W. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX SEAS SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE AROUND 03Z... WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 20-22 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALES TUE AFTERNOON AROUND 18Z...AND PERSIST AS A MODERATE TO STRONG GALE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO CREATE HIGH MIXED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W THROUGH MIDWEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT LENDING ITSELF TO ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TO 35 KT AND TO 40 KT DURING PEAK EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. NEAR GALE NE WINDS ARE ALSO SUGGESTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF FONSECA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 88W-110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 05N122W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 129W.


...DISCUSSION... A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUPPORTS FRESH NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND 25 KT WINDS N OF 30N. MAX SEAS ARE NEAR 6-7 FT. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND N OF 30N THROUGH TUE.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 13N GENERALLY BETWEEN 115W-125W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9-11 FT. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF 110W. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0648 UTC SHOWED 20-30 KT S-SE WINDS IN NW PORTION OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG 140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER. MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-14 FT THIS MORNING WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS IN FAR NW PORTION...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM 30N132W TO 19N140W TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MAX SEAS TO 10-11 FT. A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$ MUNDELL

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