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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242150
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING AT 0600 UTC TUE AND ENDING AFTER SUNRISE TUE MORNING. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1702 UTC SHOWED 30 KT N-NW WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 28N. THIS IS 5 KT STRONGER THAN THE GFS MODEL AT 1800 UTC. THE 1200 UTC GFS RUN PREDICTS GALE CONDITIONS IN THE S CENTRAL GULF BY 0600 UTC. THIS SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS. DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS IN THE GULF TO REMAIN AT GALE FORCE THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT BY WED AFTERNOON.

IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GALE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRIEFLY STALL THROUGH MIDDAY TUE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUE AND WILL SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE U.S. PLAINS STATES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH CHIVELA PASS LATE TUE. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED MORNING AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY 1200 UTC. SEAS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 12 TO 18 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THIS PERIOD. STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MIDDAY WED.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 10N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N115W 1009 MB. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N117W TO 10N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM N AND W QUADRANTS OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N115W.


...DISCUSSION... A 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 36N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 16N110W TO NEAR 14N96W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 09N TO 24N W OF 130W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS ENHANCED WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON THE N SIDE OF A LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N115W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE THROUGH TUE AND PINCH OFF A WEAKER HIGH NEAR 32N125W BY MIDDAY WED...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING THE TRADE WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH PRES HAS ALREADY OOZED INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...BUILDING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY OVER PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A STRONG BREEZE EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM 28.5N TO 30N EARLY TUE. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E...IT WILL MAKE WAY FOR A NEW COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NW WATERS TUE. SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO A STRONG BREEZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NW WATERS THROUGH WED MORNING AND LIE FROM 30N138W TO 27N140W BY MIDDAY WED.

$$ SCHAUER

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