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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222045
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N98W OR ABOUT 260 NM S-SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W ALONG 14N94W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N98W THEN ALONG 9N106W TO 6N120W THEN RESUMES NEAR 17N115W TO 12N122W WHERE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG COAST OF COSTA RICA BETWEEN 83W AND 86W AND WITHIN 120 NM S AND 90 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 107W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF POLO IS A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 22N115W. STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT REMAIN SURROUNDING THE LOW AND ARE EXPECTED DIMINISH/SUBSIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS THROUGH 32N129W TO 24N140W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT JUST NW OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N136W TO 27N140W. A SECOND RE- ENFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUE WITH SEAS INCREASING BY EARLY WED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N108W COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N E OF 116W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS W OF THIS UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER TROUGH ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF MEXICO IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N131W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 22N122W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

$$ PAW

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