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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191539
TWDEP

TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is propagating across the eastern Pacific Ocean just to the west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The wave is along 96W N of 07N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 16N between 92W and 102W.


..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

Monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N100W to 12N120W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 77W and 84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 12N between 87W and 91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N to 16N W of 137W.


...DISCUSSION...

Broad cyclonic wind flow, and comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor satellite imagery, cover the Pacific Ocean to the north of the line that passes through 32N140W to 25N132W 25N129W, beyond 27N114W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 05N northward between 100W and 140W.

To the North of 15N and to the east of 120W:

A surface ridge passes through 32N137W to 26N128W to 17N114W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Pacific Ocean from 13N northward from 112W westward. A surface trough is in the northernmost part of the Gulf of California. A surface trough cuts right through the center of mainland Mexico. The surface pressure gradient that exists between the ridge and the troughs is supporting gentle to moderate winds, and seas in the range from 5 feet to 7 feet. The ridge will continue to build during the next few days, which will freshen winds off the Baja California coast with seas building to 6 to 8 feet.

To the South of 15N and to the east of 120W:

A tropical wave is moving through the far eastern waters. Light to gentle monsoonal flow prevails to the south of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate southeasterly trade winds prevail to the south of the ITCZ. Light to gentle northeasterly trade winds prevail to the north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. Southwesterly swell continues to propagate across the area with seas in the 6 to 8 foot range from 100W westward, and in the 4 to 6 foot range from 100W eastward.

Model guidance forecasts a surface low pressure center 14N96W in 24 hours, and near 15N99W in 48 hours. Sea heights reaching 8 feet to 11 feet are forecast in 48 hours.

Elsewhere to the west of 120W:

High pressure prevails in the northern waters. The surface pressure gradient that exists between the high pressure that is to the north, and the lower pressure that is in the vicinity of the ITCZ, will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds to the N of 26N west of 130W, with sea heights in the 8 foot to 10 foot range. The ridge will prevail in the northern waters during the next few of days with these general conditions persisting.

$$ FORMOSA

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