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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290312
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS OF 35-40 KT N OF 14N IN THE GULF WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS TO 21 FT. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1542 UTC SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 13N96W. THE CARGO SHIP CAP PASLEY CALL SIGN A8NQ6 REPORTED 43 KT NEAR 14.6N 95.2W AT 1800 UTC. NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTEND AS FAR S AS 10N BETWEEN 98W- 102W. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY SAT...AND FALL BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9-12 FT AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE MON NIGHT...THEN LAST THROUGH LATE WED.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N85W TO 07N90W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO 07N108W TO 11N121W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 103W AND 114W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 129W.


...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 24N140W. A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W. THE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND BECOME STATIONARY SAT MORNING FROM 30N130W TO 23N138W THEN WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH SAT EVENING. NW SWELL W OF THE FRONT ARE PRODUCING COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8-9 FT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NW WATERS SUN WITH 20-30 KT VEERING WESTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 10-13 FT. NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 21 FT EXPECTED NEAR 32N140W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT RELATED TO CARIBBEAN HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN NE 20-30 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT...THEN NOCTURNAL MAX WILL REACH 20-25 KT SAT THROUGH TUE.

$$ MUNDELL

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