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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180230
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
049 UTC Fri Aug 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A surface low is analyzed near 14N113W, with estimated mean sea level pressure of 1008 mb. Strong winds, with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range are noted within 120 NM east semicircle of the low. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm southwest semicircle of the low. Environmental conditions are favorable for tropical cyclone formation as this low moves west northwestward the next couple of days. Refer to High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for additional information.


..TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 06N, moving west at about 20 kt. Isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 11N between 92W and 97W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W from 07N to 21N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 18N to 21N between 107W and 111W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N95W to 14N111W through low pres near 14N113W to 12N120W to 13N127W to 11N137W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 NM south of the monsoon trough between 118W and 134W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 90 NM south of the monsoon trough west of 134W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge will dominate the forecast waters west of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend. A surface trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California through Sat night, with a surface low developing intermittently over the northern Gulf of California.

Gulf of California...gentle southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California through the upcoming weekend.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: winds will pulse to fresh to strong during the overnight and early morning hours through Monday, with seas are building to 6-8 ft with these winds. On Monday, winds are forecast to reach near gale force, with seas building to 9-10 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: fresh to strong offshore winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours through Friday morning, with moderate to fresh winds thereafter.

Otherwise, gentle NE to E winds are expected N of the monsoon trough, while moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis through the upcoming weekend with 3 to 6 ft seas throughout.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 41N141W extends a ridge southeast to near 22N113W. Except as previously mentioned in the special features section, moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W.

$$ AL

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