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AXPZ20 KNHC 022208
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF OF 88W/89W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W/104W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 113W/114W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN 125W AND 138W ARE BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM WAVE TO WAVE AND ARE PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DESCRIBED BELOW.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WEAK MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N77W TO 08N85W TO 08N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WEST FROM 08N90W TO 10N130W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S AND 240 N OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 135W AND 138W.


...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 110W...1017 MB HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR 27N120W...REPLACING A WEAK LOW PRES ARE IN THIS AREA THAT HAS SINCE SHIFTED WEST. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO THE MORE TYPICAL NW DIRECTION OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW RELATED TO A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS KEEPING THE REGION NEARLY CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO WHERE A SMALL UPPER LOW...CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW...IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT BY EARLY FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE FRI AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.

S OF 15N E OF 120W...PERSISTENT STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW STRONG GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT NIGHT...WITH PULSES OF FRESH SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE AFTERNOON WESTWARD AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT. FRESH GAP WIND FLOW PERSIST INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN PHASE WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103/104W AND MAY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT FROM PREVIOUS GAP WIND FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 125W WAS PREVIOUSLY ENHANCED BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT SOUTH OF AN UPPER LOW...BUT HAS NOW ACTIVE INDEPENDENTLY OF THE UPPER SUPPORT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT LOW NEAR 135W BY FRI. THE TRADE WINDS REMAIN WEAK DUE TO MODEST HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES EXPECTED IN THE TROPICS LOCALIZED WINDS TO 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. LOOKING AHEAD...SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE ONE OR MORE OF THESE LOWS IN THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 125W AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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