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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261516
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 35-40 KT AS ANOTHER SHOT OF STRONG HIGH PRES SURGES SEWD ACROSS EASTERN AND SE MEXICO BRINGING MORE COLD DENSE AIR ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11- 17 FT IN THE GULF AS THESE WIND CONDITIONS INCREASE. SEAS WILL BE FURTHER TO AROUND 19 FT BY LATE TONIGHT...AND ONLY SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED AS LITTLE LET UP IS EXPECTED WITH THE GALE WINDS. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE OF LONG DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 5N77W TO 4N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N95W TO 8N125W TO 0N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 70 NM S OF AXIS FROM 88W-91W.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 15N135W. A 95-125 KT JETSTREAM IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN 85-95 KT JET IS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N136W TO 15N125W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N130W TO 20N124W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 31N133W. SWLY FLOW IS ADVECTING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO N OF 25N.

A COLD EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO 24N140W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 9-11 FT NW SWELL. OTHERWISE 8-10 FT SWELL ARE NW OF A LINE 32N123W TO 15N130W TO 9N140W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE WED...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

ELY 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS FT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

$$ DGS

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