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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THU EVENING WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT THU. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 KT...GALE FORCE BY 0600 UTC FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER TO 50 KT...STORM FORCE BY FRI EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 TO 20 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUN...WITH SEAS TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST PACIFIC N OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W BY SUN.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE IS VERY WEAK IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH THE AXIS OF THE ITCZ NOTED FROM 02N83W TO 05N96W TO 03N104W. THE PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 105W AND1 40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE PORTION OF THE ITCZ N OF THE EQUATOR.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 11N112W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE TROUGH AND FOCUSED IN AN AREA FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W.


...DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA TO A BASE NEAR 17N125W. THE SURFACE TROUGH NOTED EARLIER FROM 22N106W TO 13N118W HAS DISSIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDS SE.

A 1920 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM 11N TO 14N W OF 125W. EXPECT THE TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

PULSING GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA E OF 95W...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THU. STEADIER GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST BY EARLY FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT IN NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 30 KT LOCALLY EARLY FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

$$ COBB

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