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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231529
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


....SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N125W MOVING W 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW OVER NE QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES W OR W-NW 9 TO 13 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N88W N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTEND N OF 8N ALONG 100W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N-17N ALONG 113W MOVING W 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE...IT WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW CLOUDS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N127W TO 18N128W MOVING W 15 KT. THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS APPROACHING THE AREA OF THIS WAVE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N78W TO 8N95W. ITCZ FROM 8N95W TO 1008 MB LOW 11N125W. MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N125W TO 1009 MB LOW 9N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 80W-82W AND FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 93W-110W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 110W-120W AND FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 120W-140W.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 30N130W TO 20N135W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS OVER THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ITCZ. A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SW NEW MEXICO NEAR 32N107W WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE E PACIFIC TO 23N120W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST S OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 19N115W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT...HOWEVER AREA OF STRONG WINDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KT BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20 KT LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THU AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS.

$$ DGS

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