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AXPZ20 KNHC 252205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 25 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed over the far eastern part of the area along 78W north of 05n...moving w near 10 kt. Clusters of scattered strong convection are seen over much of Panama. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over central and southern Costa Rica.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 09N103W to low pressure near 09N109W 1012 MB TO 11N116W TO 12N123W. ITCZ axis extends from 09N127W TO 07N135W TO 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 NM s of the trough between 109W-115W... and within 180 NM north of the trough between 110W-117W. Scattered moderate convection is s of the trough within 60 NM of a line from 07N82W TO 07N86W.


...DISCUSSION...

Strong high pressure centered well to the north of the area near 42N137W extends a ridge southeastward to 32N132W to 24N118W to south of Baja California Sur near 19N109W. High pressure covers the area north of 15N west of 109W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across Baja California is producing moderate to fresh northwest winds west of the Baja California Peninsula to near 118W. The ridge is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds N of the convergence zone and S of 22N W of 120W. A weak 1012 mb low is embedded along the monsoon trough near 09N109W. The 1630Z Ascat pass showed cyclonic turning of wind vectors within about 240 nm of the low. The low is located to the southeast of a broad upper anticyclone centered near 14N118W. Moderate to strong easterly upper winds over the southern semicircle of the anticyclone are shearing off the cold tops of the deep convection associated near the low as well as that along and near the monsoon trough segment with the low. Global model guidance forecasts the low to move in a general west-northwest over the next 48 hours while remaining on the weak side. Seas across the tropical zone are forecast to remain in the 5-7 ft range through Friday.

E of 105W...southwest moderate to fresh southwest winds are forecast by the Global models to increase to the strong category early on Friday as another low pressure center forms along the monsoon trough near 10N86W. Current seas of 5-7 ft found there will gradually build to 6-8 ft by Friday afternoon as the strong southwest winds increase in duration.

Gulf of California... Weak low pressure in the far northern Gulf of California will induce moderate to fresh SW winds N of 29N this evening...and increase further to 20-30 kt tonight. These winds are forecast to begin to diminish tonight...down to 15-20 kt by late tonight. A brief instance of strong northwest winds is expected along the far northern boundary of the Gulf tonight.

$$ Aguirre

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