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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220252
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 136.5W AT 22/0300 UTC MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM IN THE NE AND 120 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLES. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A DRIFT TOWARD THE E IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE ENE THEN NE AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 20.9N 122.8W AT 22/0300 UTC MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 180 AND 360 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NW WHILE ACCELERATING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 99.0W AT 22/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE NW AND 300 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLES. PREVIOUSLY AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WAS OCCURRING WELL TO THE NE OF THE NEWLY FORMED T.D. NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO 30 KT AND THUS THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE T.D. IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM EARLY FRI AND THEN TO A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 10N93W THEN RESUMES FROM 10N100W TO 07N107W TO 09N112W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 03N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 112W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 40N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 30N117W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA FRI THROUGH SAT AS LOWELL MOVES UP AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM LOWELL.

AN AREA OF S-SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REMAIN JUST S OF THE EQUATOR SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ LEWITSKY

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