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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300337
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG DURATION MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS GALE EVENT...AS WELL AS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 03N-14N BETWEEN 93W-108W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SE RETURN FLOW BY SAT MORNING. THE GALE WARNING IS SCHEDULED TO COME DOWN AFTER SUNRISE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA THAT HAS BROUGHT GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERWARD...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AND SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. SWELLS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT SEAS OVER 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS FROM PAPAGAYO WILL SHRINK EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N90W TO 03N95W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 123W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 118W.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM 32N120W TO 10N114W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS LIES E OF THE TROUGH INTO NW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY AND CUT OFF A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SAT. A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING ON THE W SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS IS FORCING A FRESH TO STRONG N- NW BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH HERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SLACKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI AFTERNOON.

THE 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 36N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 19N140W. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS LIE OVER THE WATERS PRIMARILY W OF 130W BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE ITCZ AXIS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT EVENING.

$$ SCHAUER

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