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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150307
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
108 UTC Fri Dec 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight. The front will reach the Bay of Campeche Fri night. Cool and denser air will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec tomorrow evening. Winds will rapidly ramp up to near gale force Fri evening and further to gale force later Fri night. The front will lose its push Saturday, which will diminish winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This will keep this gale force gap wind event brief as winds are expected to diminish below gale force by Sat afternoon.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 08N84W to 05N94W to 10N115W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N west of 138W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: Strong winds prevail over the northern Gulf of California. Winds will diminish over this area early Saturday.

A cold front will push southward across Baja California Norte into the Gulf of California this weekend. Associated large swell and strong winds will spread across the Pacific waters off the coast of Baja California Norte.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish early Fri, then strengthen again Sat night. Fresh N winds will funnel into the Gulf of Panama through Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1027 mb centered north of the area near 37N132W extends a ridge southeast to near 20N110W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 120W. NE swell propagating through the area is supporting seas 8 ft or greater over much of the area west of 120W. Seas associated with a fresh set of NW swell over the NW waters is peaking near 14 ft. Seas will slowly subside as the swell propagates southeast the next few days. A cold front will move into the far northern waters Saturday. This will usher in another set of northerly swell into the area, with seas peaking near 14 ft Saturday night near 30N122W.

$$ AL

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