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AXPZ20 KNHC 280917
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS NEAR 24.4N 127.8W 995 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 28 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 27 FT WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF MARIE. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST TROPICAL STORM BY LATER TODAY. LARGE AND POWERFUL SWELL GENERATED DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WATERS...AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG SWELL FROM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION THROUGH THU. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON MARIE...AND THE LOCAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 14N85W TO 10N105W TO 12N109W. RESUMES 13N131W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 94W-98W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF LOWELL HAS MOVED NW OF THE ARE. HOWEVER 8-10 FT SWELL IS N OF 16N W OF 135W ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF LOWELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MERGE WITH MARIE TONIGHT.

THE SMALL REMNANT LOW OF KARINA CAN STILL BE SEEN IN SATELLITE NEAR 16N123W. THERE IS A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR KARINA THIS EVENING BUT SMALL ISOLATED CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR THE CENTER. WINDS ASSOCIATED THE REMNANT LOW HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 20 KT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.

MIXED SWELLS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF SWELL PROPAGATING AWAY FROM MARIE INTERACTING WITH FADING SWELL THAT HAD BEEN GENERATED BY LOWELL AND KARINA. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 110W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

$$ DGS

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