000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250120
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Apr 25 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0040 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
An equatorial trough curves northwestward from the border of
Colombia and Panama near 07.5N78W to 06.5N81W to 09N100W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N100W to 07N120W to 03.5N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N
between 82W and 87W, and from 03N to 10N between 92W and 136W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends southeastward roughly along the outer
offshore waters boundary. The pressure gradient over the northern
waters is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds in the northern
Gulf of California, with moderate to fresh NW winds nearshore and
W of Baja California. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail
across the remainder of the offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
in merging SW and NW swell across the open waters, and 1 to 3 ft
in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds in the
northern Gulf of California will pulse to between fresh and
strong with locally near-gale force this evening through Thu
morning, and again Fri evening through early Sat morning.
Starting Thu, high pressure across the East Pacific is going to
strenghten. This will cause gentle to moderate northerly winds
west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands to
become fresh to locally strong along with building seas by Fri.
The pressure gradient across the waters will weaken by the end of
the weekend into early next week resulting in fairly tranquil
conditions.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh winds are noted offshore southern Nicaragua
and also in the Gulf of Panama. Winds are mainly light to gentle
elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell across the
offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the
Pacific coast of Colombia, and offshore/S of Costa Rica where
the equatorial trough passes through.
For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds at the Gulf of Papagayo
region will become fresh to strong later this evening through
Fri morning, the moderate to fresh through Sat morning. Moderate
to fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight through
Thu. Little change in seas is expected during the next several
days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A frontal trough is over the northern waters from 30N123.5W to
27N127W to 28.5N130W. Some isolated to scattered showers are
possible near the trough. Otherwise, broad ridging dominates the
waters N of the ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades and 6 to 9 ft
seas are from 09N to 20N and W of 115W. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds prevail across the remainder of the waters, along with seas
of 5 to 7 ft, primarily in SW swell S of 10N and primarily in NW
swell N of 10N.
For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast
to become fresh to occasionally strong, along with continuing 7
to 9 ft seas Thu evening as the surface ridge strengthens.
Meanwhile, the trough in the northern waters will dissipate
through Thu while shifting E. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds
and seas at 6 to 8 ft are expected north of 20N and E of 125W by
Fri. Little change is forecast across the remainder of the waters
into early next week.
$$
Lewitsky
