000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270309
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The equatorial trough extends from 09N76W to 09N89W to 08.5N114W.
The ITCZ continues from 08.5N114W to 08N125W TO 05N132W to
beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 03N to 08.5N between 81W and 96W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between
107W and 132W. Scattered moderate convection is noted W of 137W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1032 mb center of high pressure located NE of the Hawaiian
Islands extends a broad ridge southeastward to offshore of Cabo
Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a
surface trough over NW and central Mexico is supporting moderate
to fresh NW to N winds across the Baja California waters, with a
few small areas of strong winds near the coast. Seas there are 6
to 8 ft in NW swell. Fresh to locally strong westerly gap winds
have developed inside portions of the north and central Gulf of
California, where seas downwind have built to 4-5 ft. Variable
gentle to moderate winds are across the remaining Gulf, where
seas are 2 to 3 ft. Mainly gentle W to NW winds and seas at 4 to
5 ft in SW swell prevail across the remainder of the S and SW
Mexican offshore waters between Manzanillo and Tehuantepec.
For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue across the
NE Pacific to sustain moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja
offshore waters, becoming locally strong during the afternoon
and evening hours through Sat. Westerly gap winds across the
northern and central portions this evening are expected to
continue through early Sat morning. The high pressure will move
east and weaken modestly Sun through the middle of next week,
leading to weakening winds across the area waters. Moderate NW
swell will build across the Baja waters today then become
reinforced over the weekend, with seas building to 8 to 11 ft
across the outer waters of Baja Norte by Sat night.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scattered showers and tstms prevail across the offshore waters
between the Galapagos Islands and the coasts of Costa Rica and
Panama. Fresh easterly gap winds are within 60 nm of the coast of
Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.
Between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, gentle to locally
moderate S to SW winds are ongoing along with seas to 6 ft in S
swell. Light to gentle variable winds with 4 to 5 ft seas are
present elsewhere in S swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds are
expected across the Papagayo region through Sat morning.
Moderate N winds will pulse to locally fresh winds tonight
until Sat morning. Gentle to locally moderate winds with moderate
seas will prevail elsewhere through Mon before new S swell
raises seas across the regional waters Mon night and Tue.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1032 mb center of high pressure near 35N145W extends a broad
ridge SE across the offshore waters of central Mexico. The
associated pressure gradient south of this ridge is maintaining
moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 08N to 22N W of 115W, with
small areas of strong winds near active convection between 118W
and 132W. Seas in this region are 7-10 ft in mixed N and NE
swell. N of 22N and W of the Baja California offshore waters,
winds are mainly moderate from the N to NE and seas are in the
5-7 ft range in northerly swell. Gentle to moderate SE to S
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate, cross equatorial S swell
prevail near and S of the ITCZ.
For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds will continue
S of 22N and west of 118W through Mon, occasionally pulsing to
strong. This will maintain seas at 6 to 9 ft south of the ridge.
Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are expected north
of 22N through Mon, with northerly swell offshore of Baja
California Norte building 8 to 12 ft Sat night through Wed, and
gradually spreading westward to 130W. Little change is forecast
across the remainder of the waters through early next week.
$$
Stripling
