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AXPZ20 KNHC 222152
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WNW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 05N77W TO 05.5N89W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 111W...THEN THE ITCZ AXIS TURNS WSW TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF PACIFIC COLOMBIA N OF 05N AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA TO THE E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N102W TO 08N120W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N111W TO 11N110W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N112W TO 18N102W.


...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO WELL DEFINED BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 12N120W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW PORTION NEAR 31N128W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 20N W OF 116W.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 09N113W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 12N109W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N102W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE DISSECTING THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N131W TO 17N104W. THE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS...AND 13-15 KT SEAS PER A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS...ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 121-124W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE...WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 11-13 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-13N W OF 132W. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH THE TRADES DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 104W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE CURRENT 6-9 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON TUE. HOWEVER...NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON EARLY NIGHT...AND SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 27N ON TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW EARLY WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW BY EARLY THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED MORNING THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE FORCE ON WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY THU EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE WILL BEGIN LATE THU AND EXTEND AS FAR SW AT 09N91W ON FRI AFTERNOON.

$$ NELSON

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