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AXPZ20 KNHC 140905
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 18 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE N WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUNRISE ON MON. THE RESULTANT SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM PULSING STRONG WINDS IN GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...AND ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN VERY CONFUSED SEAS AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL RETURN BY TUE MORNING...LIKELY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THU IF NOT LONGER. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

W CENTRAL WATERS GALE WARNING...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 16N125W TO 07N130W WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PRESENT FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35-40 KT FROM 10N TO 15N W OF THE TROUGH TO 134W...WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 11-18 FT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N89W TO 04N110W TO 05N123W TO 01N130W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 101W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W.


...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES AT 1034 MB IS LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 36N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW TO JUST N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS TO THE SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ WHERE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ALSO PRESENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES SURROUNDING THE AFOREMENTIONED GALE AREA IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS. LARGE NW SWELLS ALSO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY CONTRACT IN COVERAGE AND DIMINISH IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. NW SWELL WILL ALSO SUBSIDE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW AND N CENTRAL WATERS TUE NIGHT ATTACHED TO PACIFIC NW LOW PRES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST N OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED LARGE NW SWELLS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...CURRENTLY MAINLY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS PREVAIL WITH BROAD INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND RIDGING W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY BY EARLY MON ALLOWING FOR FLOW TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MON EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT BY MON EVENING AS A RESULT.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...1022 MB HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE E-SE ALONG EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND BROAD LOWER PRES SW OF CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE FLOW IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IN THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 12 FT LATER THIS MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON... HOWEVER THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THEREAFTER ALLOWING FOR ONLY 20-25 KT WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS JUST S OF THE THE AZUERO PENINSULA. SEAS ARE UP TO 7-10 FT. THE SUPPORTING PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ON MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON EVENING.

$$ LEWITSKY

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