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AXPZ20 KNHC 021523
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM SIMON CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 107.1W AT 02/1500 UTC OR 165 NM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 12N98W TO 19N104W...WITHIN 180 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE...AND FROM 21N TO 23N E OF 107W. SIMON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN REACHING HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING TO THE WNW. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SW MEXICO MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WHILE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL IMPACT THE COAST CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 15N98W THEN RESUMES FROM 15N111W TO 09N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 03N E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 132W.


...DISCUSSION...

FRESH S TO SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON ARE COMBINING WITH RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL... AS WELL AS NW SWELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ROUGHLY WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 18N104W TO 09N104W TO 09N117W TO 18N109W TO 08N104W. AS SIMON CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WNW...THE AREA OF MONSOONAL FLOW WILL SHIFT N-NE AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH FRI NIGHT
...AND COMBINED SEAS REMOVED FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT BY THEN.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EXTENDING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND FAR NW MEXICO. RESIDUAL N-NW SWELL FROM STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS W OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING 8 TO 9 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W AND 135W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN 24 HOURS AS THE SUPPORTING WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT N OF 26N BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHILE TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO AS WELL AS JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY FRI NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS.

$$ LEWITSKY

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