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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231519
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS S-SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING FROM 15.5N93W TO 11N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 12N WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH SHARP RIDGING EXTENDING SE ACROSS FAR SE MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS BY 24 HOURS AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ALL INDICATE THESE WINDS...WITH THE UKMET EVEN SHOWING 40 KT 10-M WINDS WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING LIKELY HELPING TO DEVELOP LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 14N92W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N112W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N128W TO 08N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW NEAR 10N112W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE E AND 180 NM IN THE W QUADRANTS OF THE LOW NEAR 10N128W.


...DISCUSSION...

1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 30N133W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS E OF 110W.

NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 110W WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 10 FT. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W WITH THE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER PROPAGATING SE COVERING THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 106W BY 48 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER TONIGHT...BREACHING 30N140W BY 12 UTC FRI WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND IT ALONG WITH 8-13 FT SEAS...AND A SMALL AREA OF SW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E-SE REACHING 30N127W TO 26N133W TO 23N140W BY 48 HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY FRI EVENING...WHILE SEAS WILL STILL BE 8-12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY SAT.

OTHERWISE...A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE NEAR 10N112W AND THE OTHER NEAR 10N128W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THESE LOWS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$ LEWITSKY

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