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AXPZ20 KNHC 012140
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 2100 UTC AUG 01...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS NEAR 13.8N 140.1W OR ABOUT 930 NM..1725 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO IS MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 970 MB ALONG WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURES HAS BEGUN TO APPEAR WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN OUTER BANDS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 133W AND 137W. HURRICANE GUILLERMO HAS PASSED WEST OF 140W AND THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HFOTCMCP4/WTPA34 PHFO FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL IS OVER SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 110W FROM 07N-16N
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 11N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER NICE DEFINED NE TO SE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 180NM-240 NM ACROSS THE AXIS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS... AND CONTINUE W WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N83W TO 06N95W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 07N110W TO 05N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 102W AND 112W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 28N127W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR NW 15-20 KT WINDS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT...GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-8 FT BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W- 130W TODAY THROUGH SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AND TUE. INDUCED SEAS OF 7-8 FT FROM PREVIOUS 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WSW AND MIX WITH THE LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF 15-20 KT NLY DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT EARLY ON SUN.

$$ COBB

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