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AXPZ20 KNHC 010930
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 139.1W AT 0900 UTC...MOVING W 280 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT GUSTS TO 140 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 948 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JIMENA HAS A WELL DEFINED 20 NM EYE SURROUNDED BY A 100 NM CIRCULAR RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF THE CENTER. JIMENA WILL MOVE W OF 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER TODAY...BUT OUTER EFFECTS OF THE HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W OF THE AREA AND PERSIST UNTIL THU OR FRI. JIMENA HAS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 500 NM OF THE CENTER...WITH MAX SEAS TO 45 FT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 113.3W AT 0900 UTC...MOVING WNW 295 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N111W TO 08N116.5W. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND INTENSIFY TO AROUND 45 KT WED THEN WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHILE MOVING FURTHER NORTH. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N88W TO 08N95W TO 10N103W. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AT THE PRESENT TIME.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO NORTHERN WATERS N OF 21N W OF 120W. AN ASCAT PASS THIS MORNING INDICATED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE GILA AND COLORADO IN THE U.S. DESERT SOOUTHWEST. SOME NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS EARLIER ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS BUMPING SEAS UP TO 8 FT N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W-123W. ANOTHER AREA OF SOUTHERLY SWELL IS REACHING SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL EXPECTED TO BE S OF 03N-05N W OF 107W BY WED NIGHT.

$$ MUNDELL

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