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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-20N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AS IT APPROACHES THE SURFACE RIDGE. ANY CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA ALONG 91W/92W N OF 15N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS MORNING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 10N88W 15N100W 14N107W 11N119W TO 10N128W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 13N TO OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 98W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND WITHIN 225 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W-114W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-121W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 31N138W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NW OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT REMAIN IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDS NARROW RIDGES TO THE E AND TO THE SW OF THE 1012 MB LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA. THE STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE SW COAST OF MEXICO BUILDING SEAS TO 10 FT MON NIGHT THEN A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUE NIGHT NEAR 18N107W BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 130W TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT S OF 4N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W BY WED AND REMAIN THROUGH THU.

$$ PAW

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