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AXPZ20 KNHC 042130
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 4 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N124W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE LOW CLOUD LINES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 2-5 DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES W WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 07N-14N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF ITS AXIS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N91W TO 07N108W TO 11N117W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N117W TO THE LOW PRES NEAR 12N124W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 114W.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM 30N136W TO 21N114W. THE RIDGE N OF THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE NEAR 12N124W IS ENHANCING EASTERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 20 KT NE WINDS FROM 16N- 20N BETWEEN 130W-136W. NO CURRENT ALTIMETER DATA IS AVAILABLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING NW WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 27N WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. DIURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 20-25 KT IN THE MORNING...PRODUCING 8-9 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-SW THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAKER FLOW IS EXPECTED BY WED NIGHT.

$$ MUNDELL

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