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AXPZ20 KNHC 031503
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR 17.9N 115.6W AT 1500 UTC MOVING N OR 350 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 114W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF CENTER FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 110W AND 114W. KEVIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE WITH DIMINISHING SST AND DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N91W TO 11N101W TO 08N112W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 10N121W TO 09N130W TO 10N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W...AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.


...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS JUST W OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG 19N144W MOVING NW AT 03 KT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT CURRENTLY FROM 12N TO 28N W OF 136W. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N150W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF JIMENA AND KEVIN. CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 00N135W TO 10N120W TO 03.4S100W. BY SAT SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL BE FOUND S OF LINE FROM 00N123W TO 17N121W TO 17N115W TO 03.4S105W.

$$ FORMOSA

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