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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1300 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N97W TO 07N105W TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N110W TO 09N115W TO 07N126W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 09N110W TO 03N138W TO 11N127W TO 09N110W.


...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB NEAR 33N145W RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA TO 12N110W. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING IS PRESENT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS ANALYZED FROM 31.5N114W TO 31N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND COLD FRONT AND THE TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 29.5N AND 30.5N AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BETWEEN 28N AND 29N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELLS OF 6-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SWELLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATEST ALTIMETRY SUGGESTS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL IS STILL TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 12 FEET AS IT CROSSES THE EQUATOR W OF THE GALAPAGOS. THE ECMWF MODEL IS INITIALIZING WELL WITH THESE SWELL HEIGHTS SO WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF FOR NEAR TERM SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ. COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE PERSIST IN THIS AREA AS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...TRADE-WIND AND NW SWELL ALL BEGIN TO MERGE. THE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DECAY TONIGHT AND SAT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH SAT MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEAKENS THE RIDGE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RETIGHTEN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

$$ MCELROY

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