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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202152
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2115 UTC Fri Oct 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is N of 07N along 94W moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N to 12N between 92W and 97W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 09N94W to 08N110W to 09N119W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 09N119W to 10N130W to 09N134W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N to 09N between 87W and 91W, from 07N to 10N between 97W and 107W, from 07N to 10N between 112W and 115W, and also from 08N to 10N between 131W and 133W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico and eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental has weakened during the past 24 hours. This has loosened the pressure gradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and allowed for a decrease in northerly flow to fresh to strong. The pressure gradient will weaken further this weekend with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less Saturday. Another cold front will enter the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday evening. This front will bring strong to near gale force winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night, and gale force to even strong gale force winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Wed night.

The pressure gradient between building high pressure northwest of the Baja California Peninsula and a surface trough over the Gulf of California will strengthen winds west of Baja California Norte early this weekend. Strong NW winds will extends down the peninsula as far S as 24N on Sat morning. Winds are expected to diminish to 20 kt or less by Saturday afternoon. Long period NW swell generated to the NW of a dissipated cold front which was over the N central waters will invade the waters off Baja California Norte this evening. Seas will peak near 15 ft off the northernmost coast of Baja California Norte Saturday before starting to subside. The swell will propagate SE, with seas 8 ft or greater enveloping all of the offshore forecast zones W of Baja California through the weekend before subsiding below 8 ft N of 26N by Tuesday afternoon through the middle of next week.

High pressure building over the Great Basin region of the western United States will cause NW winds to strengthen over the Gulf of California from Saturday night through Tuesday, diminishing thereafter as the gradient weakens. Winds will be strongest on Monday when seas peak around 8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the forecast area N of the monsoon trough during the next several days. Seas of 8 to 9 ft maintained by decaying SE and S swell across the southernmost zones W of Ecuador will subside by early Saturday. Moderate to fresh SW winds will cause seas to build to around 8 ft W of Colombia and S of Panama between 03N and 06N between 80W and 84W on Saturday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A now dissipated cold front which was over the N central waters has introduced a fresh set of large NW swells to the area. Seas near 15 ft will spread west to east from 133W over the waters north of 28N through the rest of today. The swell will push southeastward across most of the region, while gradually subsiding, the next few days. Highest seas will drop below 12 ft Sunday afternoon and seas associated to this swell are expected to subside below 8 ft by Wednesday.

$$ Lewitsky

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