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AXPZ20 KNHC 031449
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC.


...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 99W/100W N OF 10N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO MOVING W-SW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 98W- 106W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N118W AT 1007 MB. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 115W-126W. THE CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS W-NW.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N91W ALONG 8N103W TO THE 1007 MB LOW NEAR 11N118W THEN ALONG 8N128W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N E OF 86W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA... FROM ITCZ TO 11N BETWEEN 100W-107W...FROM ITCZ TO 14N BETWEEN 107W-112W...AND FROM 4N-12N W OF 130W.


.SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N-25N.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE DRAINAGE FLOW IS SUBSIDED WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT W THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON TUE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT THEN AGAIN SHIFT W TUE. THIS EVENT WILL REPEAT AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N140W TO 23N118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL SUPPORT NORTHWESTERLY 15-20 KT FLOW WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF BAJA THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS OF LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$ PAW

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