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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130948
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS... WITH SEAS TO 17 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE N WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON MORNING. THE RESULTANT SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM PULSING STRONG WINDS IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...RESULTING IN VERY CONFUSED SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN LATE MON NIGHT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE TUE EVENING AT THE LATEST IF NOT SOONER...THEN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

W CENTRAL WATERS GALE WARNING...A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N118W TO 05N119W. THE WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N127W TO 06N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND 129W. THE ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE AREA W OF 120W. THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS JUST W-NW OF THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH BY THIS EVENING...PERSISTING INTO EARLY SUN. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 15-17 FT IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 10N W OF 120W THROUGH SUN.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N88W TO 03N110W TO 05N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 04N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W...FROM 03N TO 04.5N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W.


...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 30N130W TO 21N114W TO 19N111W. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 105-120W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT COVER THE WATERS S OF 110W. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 19-23 SECONDS HAS REACHED THE ENTIRE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA COAST...AND WILL REACH THE SW MAINLAND MEXICO COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 99-106W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 99W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE NW WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF 25N WITH 2-4 FT SEAS S OF 25N. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY SUN EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NW MEXICO TIGHTENS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT SUN NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO AND ALSO JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA...UP TO 30 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 12 FT SW OF PAPAGAYO BY 24 HOURS...AND TO 10 FT S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA.

$$ LEWITSKY

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