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AXPZ20 KNHC 111539
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-45 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE ITCZ TO THE SW AND HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SEAS IN THE 16-18 FT RANGE WILL PERSIST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT MORNING. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S-SW...MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. THIS COMBINED SWELL WILL ALLOW FOR 10-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DIMINISH. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO A STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH SUNRISE SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINS TO SLACKEN. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N96W...WITH 10-14 FT SEAS FOUND WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS DESCRIBED WITH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING ABOVE. THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF FONSECA THIS MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE FRI. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N88W TO 02N100W TO 05N110W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 06N115W TO 03N130W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-100W. A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG 112W FROM 04N-10N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 04N-08N.


...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGES EXTEND SE FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N127W SOUTHEASTWARD TO 25N118W AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 20N140W. A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE RIDGING ACROSS NW WATERS FROM 32N138W TO 29N140W. THIS COLD FRONT IS USHERING IN LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL...WITH SEAS IN THE 12-18 FT RANGE W OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 24N140W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NW WATERS FRI. PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS ARE FOUND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN WHICH SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY FRI MORNING WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FRI INTO SAT MORNING. THIS SWELL MAY MAKE FOR LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXITING AND ENTERING PORTS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY FRI EVENING AND CABO CORRIENTES BY SAT MORNING.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE N AND THE ITCZ TO THE S IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY FROM 07N-11N W OF 130W AS SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES AROUND 06Z. THESE TRADES SHOULD SHRINK IN AREA FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES N OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 07N-25N W OF 137W BY SAT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PANAMA...A FRESH TO STRONG N-NE BREEZE WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA S-SW TO NEAR 03N82W THROUGH FRI MORNING...WITH THE AREAL EXTENT OF THESE WINDS BECOMING SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SHRINKING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SOME BY SAT...REDUCING THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS TO 8 FT.

$$ SCHAUER

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