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AXPZ20 KNHC 310853
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 100W FROM 09N-21N MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N87W ALONG 15N92W 14N100W TO 12N111W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N124W TO 11N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 9N TO COAST OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-101W AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 100W-114W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 31N137W DRIFTING W. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 FT OR GREATER OVER THE FAR NW PORTION THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

A 1025 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N148W CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 24N140W TO 21N134W.

ELSEWHERE W OF 100W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES TO MOVE W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$ PAW

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