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AXPZ20 KNHC 082215
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HAS BEGUN TO COLLAPSE THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS GRADUALLY BEING REPLACED BY A NEW 1033 MB HIGH SHIFTING SE INTO W TEXAS. THIS NEW HIGH WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH TUE AND REINFORCE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE TONIGHT JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO STRONG GALES TO 45 KT TUE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS MAY APPROACH 50 KT AGAIN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS WITH EACH OF THESE NIGHT TIME PULSES OF WIND WILL BUILD TO 20-22 FT. EXPECT STRONG GALES TO AT LEAST 40 KT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO CREATE HIGH MIXED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT AND IS PRODUCING ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OF 25 TO 35 KT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE DURING PEAK EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS AND DIRECTLY DOWNWIND OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND OFFSHORE 150-180 NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 88W-110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05.5N86W TO 03N114W TO 05N126W TO 05N138W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 105W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 138W.


...DISCUSSION... A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE FAR N PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY...AND FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. MAX SEAS ARE 6- 8 FT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE NW WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT EARLY WED AND 10-15 KT BY WED AFTERNOON.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 13N GENERALLY BETWEEN 115W-125W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9-11 FT. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT S OF 13N W OF 110W. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THEAREAHAVE INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF 26N AND W OF 134W...WHERE NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS 8-13 FT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN IN FAR NW PORTION FROM 30N132W TO 19N140W ON TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MAX SEAS TO 10-11 FT. A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$ STRIPLING

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