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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010241
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF T.S. ISELLE AT 01/0300 UTC IS NEAR 13.2N 123.9W. ISELLE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 110N TO 14N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W/108W FROM 19N TO 10N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N77W TO 09N86W TO 08N94W TO 12N118W TO 13N128W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N137W 1009 MB TO 12N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 126W AND 131W.


...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 19N140W TO 26N128W BEYOND THE CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N111W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N122W 17N126W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N117W TO 20N121W TO 15N125W BEYOND 15N140W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N137W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W. THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW CENTER TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BRINGING WITH IT WIND SPEEDS TO 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET WITHIN 300 NM TO 360 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N127W 24N128W 22N129W. THIS TROUGH IS THE REMNANT OF HERNAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS NOW. THE FORECAST IS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TO NOON ON FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN AFTER NOON...AND THEN REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.



$$ MT

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