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AXPZ20 KNHC 110949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THU EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT AT MINIMAL GALE WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF STRONG GALE CONDITIONS ON LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUN AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT...MERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 90W-103W THU AND AGAIN ON SUN...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU...BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AND AGAIN REACH MINIMAL GALE THU NIGHT LATE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 06N95W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W ON THU. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY 10 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 03N94W TO 06N101W TO 07N111W TO 04N127W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 05N89W TO 06N113W.


...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 25N120W TO 16N105W. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 108W- 120W THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS ARE IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...WILL ARRIVE NEAR 120W ON FRI AND REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI NIGHT...AND REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA ON SAT...AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W- 108W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED STRONG GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W OF ABOUT 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG ABOUT 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 05N-13N W OF 130W ON THU...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE ACROSS THE TROPICS. A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR 31N128W CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WASHING OUT FROM 31N136W TO 27N140W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N139W TO 30N142W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N134W TO 25N140W ON FRI AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N140W ON THU NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON FRI.

$$ HUFFMAN

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