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AXPZ20 KNHC 080251
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 140.2W AT 08/0300 UTC OR 891 NM ESE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE E AND 120 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLES OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ALSO BETWEEN 150 NM AND 480 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WED MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND TO THE W OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH E OF 140W BY THU MORNING.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W-109W FROM 08N TO 16N IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED A WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AND CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION SECTION BELOW.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N94W TO 08N100W TO 09N105W TO 05N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 107W.


...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 27N128W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SE TO NEAR 18N112W. OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W ALONG WITH SEAS THAT ARE LESS THAN 8 FT.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS CONTINUING TO SWEEP TO THE N-NE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THU...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF AREA IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN BY EARLY THU MORNING AS AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. AS A RESULT...A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE GULF THU. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8-9 FT BY SUNRISE THU AS A RESULT OF THESE WINDS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE GULF TOWARD THE SW-W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING AS SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DEEPENS. WINDS WILL THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THU AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 20-25 KT THU EVENING AS THE TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN DEEPENS.

$$ LEWITSKY

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