AXPZ20 KNHC 232116

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: 30 to 40 kt northerly winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream to near 13N96W this afternoon, and will gradually shrink in areal coverage to minimal gale conditions tonight through mid morning on Fri. Winds will then diminish to 20 kt or less late Sat morning. Maximum seas of 14-16 ft near 14N95.5W area occurring this afternoon will subside very slowly late tonight and early Fri to around 12-13 ft. The resultant NE swell will propagate SW, mixing with long- period cross equatorial swell, with seas 8 ft or higher well downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec along 08N between 95W and 105W on Fri night before beginning to subside. Expect winds 20 kt or less and seas less than 8 ft only briefly on Sat afternoon. Strong N winds are forecast to resume again on Sat night with gale conditions expected just after sunrise on Sun. Latest guidance is suggesting another 30 to 40 kt event on Sun night with the gales diminishing by late Mon.


The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 09N77W across Costa Rica to near 11N88W to 07N100W to 10N113W. The ITCZ begins near 10N121W and extends through 07N136W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen NE of a line from 05N77W TO 09N85W to the coast of Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 135W and 140W.



See Special Features paragraph above for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A modest high pressure ridge centered offshore of southern California has weakened considerably today and is yielding gentle and variable winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft across the offshore waters of Baja this morning and are expected to continue today. Seas will begin to build Fri afternoon in NW swell, and peak at 4 to 7 ft at 13 to 15 seconds across the waters W of Baja Fri night, then subsiding some on Sat into Sun. Long-period NW swell in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas will reach 30N120W on Sun night, and spread S across the waters W of Baja with 8 to 13 ft seas at 17 to 19 seconds forecast W of Baja Mon night and Tue.

Gulf of California: Recent scatterometer passes indicated that winds have become light to locally moderate across the entire Gulf. This flow will continue through tonight. The pressure gradient will relax further, with light and variable winds expected Fri through Mon. Strong to near gale force NW flow is expected to develop N of 26N on Mon night through Tue night, with seas building to 10 to 11 ft across the long fetch waters.


Gulf of Fonseca...Fresh NW winds forecast to begin around sunrise on Mon.

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE nocturnal drainage flow forecast to begin tonight, with diurnally driven strong pulses through Tue. Seas of 8 ft or greater will propagate SW to near 08N92W on Tue.

Light and variable winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are expected elsewhere through Sun night to the N of the monsoon trough which has been meandering between 09N and 11N. Moderate NE flow expected N of the Gulf of Papagayo early Mon. Moderate southerly winds, and 3 to 6 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough.


A stationary front from 30N138.5W TO 28N140W will remain in place through Fri with a broad surface low developing along the front near 30N140W tonight. The low will move NE of the area on Fri night with the front then moving SE to extend from 30N135W TO 25N140W by midday Sat. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed E of the front from 15N TO 23N between 137W and 142W.

Combined seas of 8 to 14 ft at 14 to 16 seconds is currently observed across the discussion waters W of a line from 30N129W TO 20N140W. This long period NW swell will propagate across the waters W of a line from 32N121W to 12N140W early Fri before beginning to subside and shrink in area to mainly S of 20N and W of 125W by Sat.

$$ Cobb