742
AXPZ20 KNHC 170215
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jul 17 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N, with axis near 108W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection described in the section
below.
A tropical wave extends from 07N to 17N, with axis near 117W,
moving westward at 5-10 kt. Convection described in the section
below.
A tropical wave extends from 05N to 15N, with axis near 135W,
moving westward around 10 kt. Convection described in the section
below.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N122W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N122W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N to 16N and W of 107W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh SE winds prevail over the northern portion of the Gulf of
California along with slight seas due to the pressure gradient
between a surface trough off NW Mexico and a surface ridge over
the E Pacific subtropical waters. Moderate to fresh N winds are
ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas in SW
swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail along with
moderate seas in SW swell.
For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh SE winds over the
northern Gulf of California will prevail through tonight.
Pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will occur in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through Thu night as high pressure builds over
central Mexico. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds Fri
morning into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens
further, resulting in rough seas. Afterward, winds in the
Tehuantepec region will diminish to moderate to fresh,
continuing through Mon night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail in the Gulf of
Papagayo along with rough seas, reaching as far as 92W. Pulsing
moderate N winds also continue over the Gulf of Panama with
moderate seas. Moderate SE to S winds are ongoing between
Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands with rough seas in SW swell.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are
elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters.
For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds will
continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend, diminishing
to moderate to fresh speeds Mon. Moderate to fresh N winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds will continue between Ecuador and The Galapagos
Islands through Mon night with rough seas subsiding SW of the
Galapagos early Thu morning.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1036 mb well northwest of the discussion waters
near 44N146W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough. Moderate trades are in the belt from 11N to
220N west of 112W, and from 08N to 14N east of 112W. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere north of 20N with rough seas
in NE swell over the far NW waters, N of 28N and W of 135W.
South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds
prevail with moderate seas, except rough S of 06N.
For the forecast, rough seas over the NW waters will subside
tonight. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate
seas will continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 20N
through Mon night, except for rough seas developing W of 130W Sat
night through Mon. These winds and seas will be modulated by the
passage of several tropical waves under a prevalent subtropical
ridge through the forecast period.
$$
ERA
