000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041525
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 4 2015
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT SUDDEN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN
MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT EARLY FRI...AND
REACH A PEAK AROUND 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
WIND CONVERGENCE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY AS
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. WEAK ITCZ
IS ANALYZED FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 15N111W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W
AND 113W.
...DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 15N121W. A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N109W TO 14N118W IS A REMNANT COLD FRONT.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CENTERED
NEAR 14N133W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
COLD FRONT.
GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACHING 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM
DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THU.
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THU NIGHT IN NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND HIGH PRES
BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 26N
LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
$$
MUNDELL
