000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081523
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 08 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COOL DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL FROM
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS
MORNING...SUPPORTING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED WINDS OF
30 TO 40 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE STRONG FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE AIRMASS N OF THE
AREA MODIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT BY LATE TODAY AS WELL. A RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUE...WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE GAP BREEZES AT THEIR
HIGHEST DURING MAINLY THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LOOKING AHEAD...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DENSER AIR FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP WITH STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NE MEXICO WILL DELIVER ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING
LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI.
WINDS MAY REACH NEAR STORM FORCE BY LATE THU WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO AROUND 15 FT.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N87W TO 07N100W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N100W TO 08N120W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N E OF
81W...WITHIN 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...AND FROM
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W.
...DISCUSSION...
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N131W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE ISLANDS OF REVILLAGIGEDO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 127W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT.
SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WIND SPEEDS.
THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN ON MON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE N WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT AND BUILDING SEAS
TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...FORECAST TO REACH A
POSITION FROM 30N122W TO 28N130W TO 30N140W EARLY MON MORNING
AND FROM 30N119W TO 22N130W TO 25N140W EARLY TUE MORNING AS A
DISSIPATING FRONT.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A STRONG GRADIENT
FOLLOWED BY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE
BY MON EVENING. THE NW WINDS WILL PUSH DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
GULF THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SEAS REACHING 8-9 FT.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT...PRIMARILY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH
TUE...RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT MAINLY N OF 20N AND W OF 130W
THEN MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL...WAVE
PERIOD BETWEEN 19 TO 20 SECONDS...BY TUE MORNING.
$$
GR
