000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230915
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 23 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
....SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N124W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM
OF LINE FROM 9N119W TO 11N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES W OR W-NW 9 TO
13 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N86W N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE...THERE IS
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE E PACIFIC BASIN.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N98W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
16N98W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE N
PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER TROUGH N
OF THE E PACIFIC BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 17N ALONG 127W MOVING W 15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES IS ENCROACHING INTO THE AREA OF THIS WAVE. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N78W ALONG 7N76W TO 8N93W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 9N96W THEN RESUMES 10N100W TO 11N111W THEN
RESUMES 12N113W TO 11N120W THEN RESUMES 9N128W TO 9N14W THEN
RESUMES 10N137W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 97W AND 108W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN
102W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 89W AND 93W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N132W TO
17N137W. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE AREA N OF 20N W OF
127W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITH
THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 7N136W TO 13N135W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 137W AND FROM
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 135W AND 140W. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED
OVER SW NEW MEXICO NEAR 32N107W WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE E PACIFIC REGION N OF 22N E OF 120W. A SMALL
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST S OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 19N113W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 112W FROM 8N TO
15N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W.
OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N
OF 20N W OF 115W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N124W TO 20N119W.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
WILL PULSE INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BY LATE
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU MORNING AS
THE 8 FT SEAS SHIFT WESTWARD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG OR AS LONG DURATION AS
THE EVENT CURRENTLY UNDER WAY.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PULSING NORTHERLY WINDS
TO STRONG BREEZE AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR GALE BRIEFLY THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU MORNING WITH WINDS TO STRONG BREEZE.
$$
PAW
