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AXPZ20 KNHC 192045
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 150 NM W-SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 NM S-SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 107W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 106W-112W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SW COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND PASS S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 9N84W 10N96W 12N112W 14N122W TO 12N130W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N E OF 80W TO COLOMBIA...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 83W-95W...FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 95W-97W...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 102W-110W.


...DISCUSSION... BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE AREA W OF 115W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS N OF 25N W OF 110W AND FROM 12N-25N W OF 120W.

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR AND WILL REACH THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO SAT.

$$ PAW

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